Lockouts, rekeys, broken locks and car keys keep locksmiths busy, and businesses need access control and security hardware. But the field is changing: the Bureau of Labor Statistics projects locksmith jobs to decline from about 18,800 in 2024 to about 17,200 in 2034, an 8.3% decrease, as electronic locks and smart systems spread. The median wage was $50,490 in May 2024.
That shift creates opportunity for locksmith businesses that add electronic access control, smart locks, automotive key programming and commercial security services, while traditional lockout work faces more competition.
The workforce
| Occupation | Jobs (2024) | Median pay (May 2024) | Projected growth, 2024 to 2034 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Locksmiths and safe repairers | about 18,800 | $50,490 | -8.3% |
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Occupational Outlook Handbook.
Market data
| Measure | Value |
|---|---|
| Projected jobs in 2034 | 17,200 |
Business models compared
The figures below are illustrative months from our step-by-step guides, not industry averages. They show how revenue and costs typically fit together; your market, prices and costs will differ.
| Business model | Startup costs | Example monthly revenue | Costs | Profit before owner pay | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile residential and automotive locksmith | Moderate: van, key machines, programming tools, inventory | $16,000 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 60% |
| Commercial access control and locksmith company | Moderate to high: technicians, access control training, inventory | $40,000 | $31,700 | $8,300 | 21% |
| Storefront lock and key shop | Moderate: retail space, key machines, inventory | $18,000 | $11,700 | $6,300 | 35% |
Fixed and variable costs
For projections, the most useful split is between variable costs, which rise and fall with sales (materials, parts, hourly labor), and fixed costs, which you pay every month regardless (rent, salaried staff, insurance, loan payments).
| Business model | Variable costs (% of revenue) | Fixed costs per month | What it means |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mobile residential and automotive locksmith | 20.0% | $3,200 | Low costs overall: time is the main constraint |
| Commercial access control and locksmith company | 35.0% | $17,700 | Mostly fixed: slow start-up months are expensive |
| Storefront lock and key shop | 25.0% | $7,200 | Mostly fixed: slow start-up months are expensive |
What the numbers say
Mobile locksmiths have low overhead and high margins. Revenue depends on calls, so local visibility and fast response matter most.
Commercial access control brings larger jobs. Hardware takes a big share of revenue, and technicians and office staff add fixed costs.
The trade is shifting electronic. Smart locks and access systems are growing as traditional work declines.
The three models in brief
Mobile residential and automotive. Lockouts, rekeys, lock changes and car key programming.
Commercial access control. Master key systems, electronic access, door hardware and service contracts.
Storefront key shop. Key cutting, lock sales and walk-in services.
Cost structure: commercial access control and locksmith company
Each cost as a share of the example month’s revenue ($40,000):
| Cost | Monthly amount | Share of revenue | Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hardware and systems | $14,000 | 35.0% | Variable |
| Technicians | $9,000 | 22.5% | Fixed |
| Office | $2,500 | 6.2% | Fixed |
| Vans and fuel | $1,800 | 4.5% | Fixed |
| Payroll taxes and workers’ comp | $1,700 | 4.2% | Fixed |
| Marketing | $1,500 | 3.8% | Fixed |
| Insurance and bonding | $900 | 2.2% | Fixed |
| Software | $300 | 0.8% | Fixed |
| Profit before owner pay | $8,300 | 21% |
A first-year projection: commercial access control and locksmith company
New businesses rarely start at full speed. This projection assumes revenue ramps from 35% of the example month in month 1 to 100% by month 12, variable costs move with revenue, and fixed costs stay the same every month. It’s a planning illustration, not a forecast.
| Month | Revenue | Variable costs | Fixed costs | Profit | Cumulative |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $14,000 | $4,900 | $17,700 | -$8,600 | -$8,600 |
| 2 | $18,000 | $6,300 | $17,700 | -$6,000 | -$14,600 |
| 3 | $22,000 | $7,700 | $17,700 | -$3,400 | -$18,000 |
| 4 | $24,800 | $8,680 | $17,700 | -$1,580 | -$19,580 |
| 5 | $28,000 | $9,800 | $17,700 | $500 | -$19,080 |
| 6 | $30,400 | $10,640 | $17,700 | $2,060 | -$17,020 |
| 7 | $32,800 | $11,480 | $17,700 | $3,620 | -$13,400 |
| 8 | $34,800 | $12,180 | $17,700 | $4,920 | -$8,480 |
| 9 | $36,400 | $12,740 | $17,700 | $5,960 | -$2,520 |
| 10 | $38,000 | $13,300 | $17,700 | $7,000 | $4,480 |
| 11 | $39,200 | $13,720 | $17,700 | $7,780 | $12,260 |
| 12 | $40,000 | $14,000 | $17,700 | $8,300 | $20,560 |
Year one: revenue $358,400, profit before owner pay $20,560. The first profitable month is month 5. Cumulative results bottom out at -$19,580, which is the minimum cash cushion this plan would need, before any startup costs.
A commercial company carries technicians, office staff and inventory from the start, so this illustration turns profitable in month 5, with a cumulative low of about $19,600.
How locksmiths price
- Service call plus labor for lockouts and repairs, stated before dispatch.
- Per-cylinder pricing for rekeys.
- Hardware plus installation for lock changes and access control.
- Key programming priced by vehicle and key type.
A startup checklist
- Check state and city licensing and background check requirements.
- Arrange bonding and insurance.
- Buy tools: key machines, picks, programming equipment and inventory.
- Set a verification policy to confirm ownership before opening any home, business or vehicle.
- Build your local presence: see local SEO for contractors.
Where the opportunities are
- Electronic access control for small businesses.
- Smart lock installation for homeowners and landlords.
- Automotive key programming.
- Property manager rekeys between tenants.
Key terms
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Rekey | Changing a lock’s pins so old keys no longer work |
| Master key system | Keys that open different sets of locks |
| Access control | Electronic systems controlling who enters |
| Transponder key | A car key with a programmed chip |
Trust is the product
Customers let locksmiths into homes, cars and businesses. Verify ownership on every job, quote prices before dispatch, and display your license where required. Clear, honest pricing sets legitimate locksmiths apart.
Marketing a locksmith business
Emergency searches dominate, so a complete Google Business Profile, accurate hours, fast answers and strong reviews matter most. Partner with property managers, realtors and car dealers for steady work. See how to get more contractor leads.
Plan for the electronic shift
Train in electronic locks and access systems now, and position your business as a security provider, not just a lockout service.
How to use these numbers for your own plan
- Start with the closest model above and its cost structure.
- Replace every price and cost with local quotes: insurance, wages, vehicles, materials and your expected prices.
- Estimate your ramp: how many jobs you can realistically win each month in year one.
- Separate fixed and variable costs, then calculate your break-even point with our free break-even calculator.
- Map cash month by month with our cash flow forecast, including equipment and loan payments.
- Build the plan in our free Business Planner.
These figures will also feed a planned Advanton projection tool, so you’ll be able to start from an industry template and adjust it to your situation.
About this data
Workforce figures come from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (Occupational Outlook Handbook and Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 and the 2024 to 2034 projections). Market figures cite their sources in the list above. Business model figures are illustrative months built from typical prices and costs to show how revenue, fixed costs and variable costs fit together; they are not industry averages or guarantees. We review these profiles when new government data is released, at least once a year. The same figures are available in a structured format for Advanton’s upcoming business projection tool.
Licensing and rules
Several states license locksmiths and require background checks; some cities add their own rules; bonding and insurance are common; verify ownership before opening homes and vehicles. Requirements change; confirm with your state and local agencies before you start.
Frequently asked questions
What do locksmiths earn?
The BLS median was $50,490 in May 2024.
Is locksmithing growing?
BLS projects an 8.3% decline in jobs from 2024 to 2034, as electronic systems spread.
Do locksmiths need a license?
Several states license locksmiths and require background checks.
How can I use these numbers?
Start with the closest locksmith model, then replace every figure with your local prices, wages and expected job volume.
Keep learning
- Mobile residential and automotive locksmith
- Local SEO for contractors
- How to get more contractor leads
- Specialty trades industry data
Sources
- BLS Employment Projections 2024-34, skills data (employment 2024-2034)
- BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024 (installation, maintenance and repair occupations)
Last reviewed October 30, 2026. Startup costs are estimates; check local prices, licensing and tax rules before you commit money.
