The National Restaurant Association projects US restaurant and foodservice sales of $1.55 trillion in 2026. That is a 4.8% rise in dollar terms, but only about 1.3% after inflation. Most of the growth is coming from higher menu prices, not from more customers walking in.
Operators expect to add around 100,000 jobs in 2026, bringing industry employment to 15.8 million. Rising food and labor costs remain the biggest pressure on margins.
What the numbers mean for a new food business
Traffic is soft. Around 40% of consumers told the association they were eating out less often than a year earlier. Lower- and middle-income households are under the most strain. Only about 29% of limited-service operators and about one third of full-service operators expect higher sales than in 2025.
Off-premises is where growth lives. Takeout, delivery and catering have kept growing since before the pandemic. Among limited-service restaurants, 58% say off-premises sales are higher than in 2019. Gen Z and millennial customers lead this shift.
Costs are the main risk. Food, rent and labor are all rising. A traditional sit-down restaurant carries all three at once, which is why so many new restaurants struggle in their first years.
Why small formats make sense now
When traffic is soft and costs are high, the businesses with the lowest fixed costs survive best. Formats that skip the dining room, or skip the lease entirely, let you test a menu and build a following before you take on a full restaurant’s overhead.
| Business | Startup cost | Why it works now |
|---|---|---|
| Cottage food business | Under $5,000 | Many states let you sell certain foods made at home; almost no overhead |
| Food truck | $60,000 to $175,000 | Goes where the customers are; no dining room lease |
| Catering or meal prep | $10,000 to $50,000 | Rent a commercial kitchen by the hour; sell to offices and events |
| Ghost kitchen brand | $15,000 to $60,000 | Delivery-only; tests concepts quickly, but app fees are high |
Startup costs are Advanton estimates. Equipment, permits and kitchen rental prices vary widely by city.
Rules to check first
Food businesses are among the most regulated small businesses. Expect a health department permit, food handler or manager certification, a business license, and for trucks, fire inspections and parking or vending permits. Cottage food laws differ by state, including which foods are allowed and whether you can sell online. Start with your county health department.
Our take
The restaurant market is huge, but this is not the moment to sign a long lease on a dining room as a first-time owner. Prove the food, the price and the demand with a low-overhead format first. When customers are lining up and your numbers work, you will know what kind of space to look for.
Ready to start? Follow the Start a Business A–Z guide.
Sources
- National Restaurant Association, 2026 State of the Restaurant Industry
- National Restaurant Association, press release on 2026 outlook
- Restaurant Dive, coverage of the 2026 report
- Franchise Times, coverage of the 2026 report
Last reviewed October 17, 2026. Startup costs are estimates; check local prices, licensing and tax rules before you commit money.
