Guess the number
In World Bank figures, in which year did China's population peak?
2021, the same year India's population passed China's in these figures. China has shrunk every year since.
Key facts
- In 2025, India had 146.4 crore people and China 140.7 crore: India is larger by 5.7 crore.
- China’s population peaked in 2021 and has fallen four years in a row, and the decline is speeding up: -0.01%, -0.10%, -0.12%, -0.17%.
- India’s population grows about 0.9% a year (+0.89% in 2025).
- In World Bank figures, India’s population passed China’s in 2021.
The India China population story is one of the biggest demographic shifts of the century. For generations China was the world’s most populous country; World Bank figures show India passing it in 2021, the same year China’s population peaked. Since then, China has shrunk every year while India has kept growing.
Published November 2026. All figures: World Bank, World Development Indicators, "Population, total" and "Population growth (annual %)". These figures are based on UN population estimates; the UN’s earlier estimates placed India overtaking China in 2023, so the exact crossover year depends on the source and revision.
Seven years, side by side
Table of Contents
| Year | India | China | India growth | China growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | 138.9 crore | 140.8 crore | +1.04% | +0.35% |
| 2020 | 140.3 crore | 141.1 crore | +0.97% | +0.24% |
| 2021 | 141.4 crore | 141.2 crore | +0.82% | +0.09% |
| 2022 | 142.5 crore | 141.2 crore | +0.79% | -0.01% |
| 2023 | 143.8 crore | 141.1 crore | +0.88% | -0.10% |
| 2024 | 145.1 crore | 140.9 crore | +0.89% | -0.12% |
| 2025 | 146.4 crore | 140.7 crore | +0.89% | -0.17% |
Why it matters
- Workers: India’s working-age population keeps growing, while China’s is shrinking and ageing (15% of Chinese are 65 or over, against 7.4% of Indians; see the world’s oldest countries).
- Consumers: India adds roughly 1.3 crore people a year: new households, new customers and new demand for housing, food and services.
- Growth: a growing, young population can support faster growth if jobs keep pace; a shrinking one means fewer workers supporting more retirees.
Not just China
China is not alone: Japan’s population has shrunk for years (-0.49% in 2025), and several European countries are declining. India’s growth is itself slowing, and UN projections expect it to keep slowing over the coming decades.
Explore the data
Questions
Is India’s population larger than China’s?
Yes. In 2025, India had 146.4 crore people and China 140.7 crore (World Bank).
Is China’s population falling?
Yes: it has fallen every year since its 2021 peak, by 0.17% in 2025.
When did India overtake China?
In 2021 in World Bank figures; the UN’s earlier estimates placed it in 2023.
Sources
- World Bank, World Development Indicators, SP.POP.TOTL and SP.POP.GROW (based on UN population estimates), via Advanton Statistics.
See our methodology. Cite as: Advanton (2026), "China Is Shrinking, India Is Growing".
Last reviewed November 12, 2026. Startup costs are estimates; check local prices, licensing and tax rules before you commit money.